Windows 7 targets October 2009 RTM, retail soon after?

Connecting the dots is so fun. Usually I don’t speculate about release dates, especially if the only source is “I heard from my step-brother’s uncle who knows someone who works on Windows”, but I’m pretty confident about this one.

Twitter user “remtiwk” had pointed out to me something very interesting yesterday which only today I realized is not just bluff or a mistake. On the ever-changing WinHEC 2008 website now writes “there is not another WinHEC planned before Windows 7 is released”. Wikipedia then confirmed WinHEC was an annual event. This morning, Ed Bott links to an interview which the ASUS CEO is quoted as saying “in the second half of next year we will put Windows 7 on Eee PCs”.

If you put the two together then Windows 7 is scheduled to be released to manufacturing in late October 2009. Retail release should be a month or two after, so late November 2009, just before the holiday season.

Ninjas at Microsoft nodded at my guesstimations before quickly vanishing to do other ninja stuff.

124 insightful thoughts

  1. This is good news. I think that it’ll be vastly more popular than Vista, even if in it’s heart it still is Vista (which may be the case from what I’ve read and seen). No I don’t think there’s anything wrong with Vista at all, it just got an unfair and perhaps unrecoverable amount of bad press.

    It will be nice to see Netbooks running Windows 7 too. Consistency between my systems makes me happy.

  2. Several set this date as their mark,
    the news hounds circled like a shark.
    Soon it was hushed by a man named Sinofsky,
    who soon found a foe in a young Aussie.
    And thus about Windows 7 none were left in the dark.

    Not sure I have know how to pronounce Sinosky enough to rhyme with the name of the dark one, and I know the credit for this one isn’t just yours Long (I read the news from Bott first; however I think the ending sound of Aussie is better?). Thus continuing the evil Sinofsky meme.

  3. @Dan, your expectation is two years late. 7 7 7
    @Long… I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s November 2009 for businesses and January 2010 for general consumers.

  4. I think you’re on the money Long. 3 years after Vista is a pretty good yardstick. RTM in late 2009 and released to customers in Jan 2010.

  5. @Anon for this one
    I’d assume they’d get it out for the 2009 Christmas period. January isn’t really a good time to launch a product.

  6. The consumer version must be out in new PC’s and retail six weeks before Dec. 25 or it will flop. People have to much debt after Christmas. Look at it as their ‘opening weekend’ for films. That’s the big box office take. You also get a lot of people using it before any ‘bad’ word can spread.

    Business and institutions would prefer just before June 30, when budgets have to be spent and tax deductions taken into account. (Although this may differ in countries other than Australia.) However, corporate deploys usually wait for SP1 which may not come for a year.

    So, 6 weeks before Xmas 2009 for retail and between June 30, 2009 and June 30, 2010 for corporate.

    Vista did things arse about ofcourse. What Clint Eastwood called a ‘cluster fuck’ in ‘Heartbreak Ridge. :-)

  7. Long, that would entail that WinHec 2009 is delayed like 2008 was. Typically((sp)to lazy to look it up right now;) WinHec is a April May conference. and was delayed this year around the time that PDC 2008 was announced.

  8. “the rumors kept moving around, 2009, 2010, 2011.”

    But rumors were also that 7 was going to be a major release.
    For me is 7 not a technical release but a strategical one, a warmed over Vista to get the XP lovers to buy a new version.

    Re-read this post on the E7 post:

    http://blogs.msdn.com/e7/archive/2008/10/15/engineering-7-a-view-from-the-bottom.aspx

    It says between the lines that 7 has been planned by a fixed release date, not by features. I’m keen to see how th market share will be between XP, Vista and 7. Those who have avoided Vista will not migrate from XP to Vista just because 7 has been released. I guess we will see some XP -> 7 and also Vista -> 7 migrations. So for Windows developers that means we will have to support 3 different versions.

    After 7 MS can’t release a new Windows version until XP usage has declined.

  9. I think it’s really funny to read stuff like ” not a technical release but a strategical one, a warmed over Vista to get the XP lovers to buy a new version.” I mean, no one in these comments have any idea what is planned. What you see at PDC will blow you away. Also, don’t be so sure that what you see at PDC is everything there is to see ;)

    As well, I’m pretty sure what Long was implying was to consumers in 09… It is stupid to launch a product in January… Missing the holidays is DUMB.

  10. Vista’s launch was Jan 2007 and three years later for Win7 is Jan 2010. If MS is 1 month early w/ Win7, that puts it in 2009. Whoooopeeee – what a scoop!

    So let’s be specific when we talk about 2009 – do we mean December 2009 (no big deal) or do we mean Sept, June, etc. 2009?

  11. @Tank: To get from RTM to retail, if the process goes VERY quickly, 4 weeks. And for the best sales, the week before thanksgiving is best to get the computers with 7 for sale.

  12. Hey guys, just to point out… with Vista, they did the same thing for PDC.

    Even though Microsoft’s PDC is an annual conference, they skipped it that year in lieu of “rallying” for a Vista RTM in the same time frame. Could be the same here, but that makes no date gurentees! So, well I guess what we *do* know is that we’ll see Win7 before HEC’2010 :)

  13. It’s all about the 3rd party DRIVERS. It took about a year before thery were availble for Vista. Now it’s not bad, my concern is will the same apply to Windows 7.

  14. Found out a couple of wrinkles with the Win 7 RC. (1) Updated from Vista Utlimate on HP Compaq Presario
    (2) Windows Media Player – no sound – was okay on Vista
    (3) Yahoo Messenger 9.0 hangs
    (4) Webroot Window Washer hangs
    (5) Registry Mechanic throws all the dll’s up as it cant validate them
    Other than that its a cool Operating system. Wont do a clean install as the last time most of my non MS software failed to install “Wrong Operating System”
    (6) Kunbuntu 8.10 works just fine within this OS.

  15. @Andre
    They will be releasing another version of windows before XP dies out, I know a few people who have not been willing to even so much as try Windows 7 for fear of it looking like Vista. Not to mention they are planning a release of Windows 8 right about two years after the release of Windows 7.

  16. Im using windows 7 build 7264, when the RTM version comes out, will i be able to update without a clean install?

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